Back To Basics — 2023 Q3 E-commerce Review

The third quarter saw a continuation of recent e-commerce trends, only more pronounced. The rich? Richer. Consumer discretionary? Softer. The rising-tide-lifts-all-boats environment of the pandemic has been replaced by a dynamic where market share shifts and category exposure are driving performance. Below, key themes and trends from third quarter e-commerce earrings.

The Rich (Continue) Getting Richer

The e-commerce Covid hangover is over, but that doesn’t mean it’s smooth sailing for everyone. While 2020 and 2021 saw a rising-tide-lifts-all-boats dynamic, performance today is divergent, with market share shifts and category exposure driving performance. On a sequential basis, growth rates improved broadly during the third quarter. However, there’s a wide dispersion in the absolute level of growth. In general, companies that sell essentials, like Amazon and Walmart, are outperforming those heavily exposed to consumer discretionary, like eBay, Etsy, and The RealReal.

Source: Company financial reports. Notes: Amazon Online Stores includes only first-party e-commerce. Amazon doesn’t explicitly break out third-party e-commerce growth. However, third-party seller services revenue grew 18% Y/Y, suggesting overall e-commerce growth well in excess of first-party sales.

The rich in e-commerce keep getting richer, as Amazon, Shopify, and Walmart continue gaining market share. Shopify’s GMV growth accelerated to 22%, the briskest pace since the pandemic. Walmart also grew e-commerce sales over 20% . For comparison, US e-commerce sales grew roughly 8% in the third quarter.

In contrast, marketplaces like eBay and Etsy just eked out growth, due to subdued discretionary spending. Online furniture seller Wayfair deserves a gold star for bucking the trend here, growing revenue modestly in a market that’s down mid-teens. The company believes it’s gaining share from a broad range of competitors on the back of wide selection, competitive pricing, and speedy delivery. If e-commerce is a bear, furniture is the bear’s den right now.

Q4 Outlook — Tougher Sledding

While growth improved broadly in the third quarter, fourth quarter outlooks were squishy. Similar to third quarter results, discretionary exposure weighed on fourth quarter guidance. Although share gainers like Amazon and Shopify remain chipper, many businesses sounded lackluster. eBay, Etsy, The RealReal, ThredUp, and Wayfair all expect slower growth. The words “tempered” and “muted” permeated third quarter earnings calls.