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Beware of Forecasts
Though easy to forget, predicting the future is hard.
While outcomes appear black and white, victory or defeat for instance, the path there is often anything but. If a butterfly had flapped its wings differently, the end result could be very different. This uncertainty makes precise forecasts dangerous.
How Not to Communicate a Forecast
Because forecasts are uncertain, it’s important not to communicate them with certainty.
In April 1997, the Red River flooded parts of North Dakota and Minnesota. The flood caused extensive damage in Grand Forks, North Dakota, destroying or damaging 75% of homes, displacing nearly 50,000 residents, and costing over $3 billion to clean up. As statistician and FiverThirtyEight founder Nate Silver recounts in The Signal and the Noise, what makes the disaster more tragic is that it might have been preventable.
Because of heavy snow that winter, the National Weather Service and Grand Forks residents were alert to the risk of flooding. In early 1997, the National Weather Service predicted that the Red River would crest at 49 feet. The levees in Grand Forks were built to withstand a 51 foot swell, so things seemed alright. Ultimately, the river peaked at 54 feet, overwhelming the levees and wreaking the city.
